Recently, the battery China network, from the State Development and Reform Commission's official website, has learned from the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on the official website of the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to draw up a more open timetable for the auto stock. In 2018, the foreign capital shares of new energy vehicles will be cancelled, and the domestic new energy vehicles will face more direct competition with foreign enterprises, which will also be the power battery enterprise closely related to the new energy vehicles. The industry has caused great strategic pressure. It is also understood that the subsidy policy of China's new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn by 2020, and how to compete with international giants in the state of "no protection" and no subsidy will be a major challenge for domestic power battery enterprises.
Industry leader's profit shrunk
The data showed that in 2017, the rapid promotion of power battery capacity and the impact of the subsidy of new energy vehicles, the price of the Ningde era power battery system reduced sharply, resulting in the decline of the company gross interest rate, from 2.28 yuan / Wh in 2015 to 1.41 yuan / Wh in 2017, and the cumulative decline was 38.26%. In terms of non post net profit, from 2015 to 2016, it was a growth state, which was 2 billion 960 million yuan in 2016, and dropped to 2 billion 470 million yuan in 2017, down by about 16% over the same period.
According to the 2017 annual performance report issued by BYD, the changes in the new energy subsidy policy have led to a 19.5% decline in BYD's performance and a 3.93% decline in gross profit rate compared to 2016. The negative impact of the subsidy of new energy vehicles to BYD's profit was more obvious in the first three months of 2018. According to the statistics, the net profit range was only 50 million to 150 million yuan, and the estimated net profit would fall by 75.2% to 91.8% from the same period.
Battery China network learned that, in addition to the Ningde era, BYD and other power battery industry leaders have seen a significant decline in performance and profits, a number of industrial chain enterprises, such as Hsiung Tao shares, poly fluorine, star material, andar technology, godsend materials, national Xuan Gao, and Bi Kang, have also seen a slowdown in performance growth and net profit. The decline of the situation. It can be seen that the overall benefit of the power battery industry is not optimistic. In 2018, it will be a competitive and unusually difficult situation.
Three yuan battery manufacturing cost
At present, the main stream of the battery assembled by the new energy passenger car above A0 is three yuan battery, that is lithium nickel cobalt manganate or lithium nickel cobalt aluminate lithium battery, in which cobalt metal plays an extremely important role as the key material. In China, cobalt is a very scarce resource. China's proven cobalt reserves account for only a little more than 1% of the world's total, and most of them rely on imports.
Congo (gold) has nearly 70% of the world's cobalt ore. According to foreign media reports, in January 2018, the government of Congo (gold) revised the latest mining tax law, which will levy double taxes on cobalt, and the patent tax on basic metals will increase from 2% to 3.5%. And with the global power battery companies aiming at three yuan of materials, cobalt prices continue to rise, resulting in a sharp rise in the cost of three yuan battery. Data show that cobalt price will exceed 800 thousand yuan / ton in 2018.
Power cell energy density technology needs breakthroughs
As we all know, the higher the energy density of the power battery, the longer the car's endurance, the higher the energy density of the power battery, and the higher technical level. Wan Gang, the former Minister of the State Ministry of science and technology, pointed out that to double the unit energy density of the power battery, reduce the cost of the battery by half to make the unit battery more than 300Wh / kg, and reduce the cost to less than one dollar / Wh.
According to China's "energy saving and new energy vehicle technical roadmap", it is clear that the power cell of our country should reach the single body energy density 300Wh / kg by 2020, the energy density of the system reaches 260Wh / kg, the energy density of the monomer reaches 400Wh / kg in 2025, the energy density of the system will reach 350Wh / kg; by 2030 the energy density of the monomer reaches 500W H / kg. It shows that the breakthrough of power battery technology is a long way to go.
Technical breakthrough of all solid state lithium batteries
From the point of view of the potential of technological development, three yuan lithium battery has a great difficulty in improving the energy density. Industry authorities believe that the energy density of all solid state lithium batteries is feasible in theory. In addition to the advantages of traditional lithium batteries, all solid state lithium batteries have great improvements in safety and energy density, and their energy density can reach 300 ~ 400Wh / kg.
In addition to the advantages of high safety and high energy density, all solid state lithium batteries also have the characteristics that other traditional batteries do not possess. According to the report, the film type all solid state lithium battery can reach 45000 cycles, its maximum operating temperature is expected to reach 300 degrees centigrade or even higher, its electrochemical window is expected to reach 5V. It also has the advantages of strong flexibility, convenient recovery and so on.
Authoritative experts in the industry said, "to further enhance the energy density, we must consider all solid state lithium batteries. The long-term development of the electric vehicle industry needs technical reserves, and all solid state lithium batteries are expected to become the leading technology roadmap for the next generation of vehicle power batteries. Battery China network learned that BYD, Zhongtian Technology and many other enterprises have already started the layout in the solid state lithium battery field.
Leading technology is the fundamental guarantee for enterprises to stand on the market. Facing the new energy subsidies, the rising of the battery cost material and the new situation of "naked war" with foreign enterprises, it will be the urgent task for the domestic power battery enterprises to strengthen the innovation and break through the existing technical bottlenecks. Can all solid state lithium batteries bring about a new generation of power battery technology revolution?